It was supposed to be the next iteration of DVD, but Blu-ray hasn't yet caught on with consumers the way DVD did in the late 90s. There are a variety of reasons for the meager adoption rate, but we're going to ask the question manufacturers and movie studios are afraid to ask: Is Blu-ray destined to fail?
Before we talk about the latest technology, let's talk about the reference technology: DVD and VHS. Obviously, VHS caught on in the 1980s as the first preeminent home video format. Never before could consumers determine when they'd want to watch content according to their timetable instead of a TV network's schedule. At the time, VHS offered little downside, other than lower quality than its previous competitor, Sony's Betamax. Despite the quality concerns, VHS continued to gain market share until VHS tapes were the only game in town.
While VHS dominated, technology didn't exactly stagnate. The rise of the affordable personal computer and CD-ROMs meant computer components were dropping in price, and building customized computers to serve a single task became more feasible. That's where Laserdisc stepped in. With only a paltry 650MB of storage, CDROMs weren't large enough to hold a full length movie at any sort of respectable quality with 90s era MPEG-1 compression. Laserdisc attempted to sidestep the problem by releasing large vinyl record-sized discs that could contain up to 60 minutes of video per side. Laserdisc's image quality was much higher than that of VHS tapes, however like Betamax, Laserdisc didn't catch on. With poor movie choice and extremely expensive hardware, Laserdisc's pristine quality wasn't enough to overtake VHS.
While Laserdisc was flopping, other companies started work on higher capacity CD-style formats. Two competing standards came together to create the technology that's now known as DVD. DVD took a similar physical approach to CDs, measuring only 12 centimeters, but DVD utilized a different wavelength laser to extract more information and increase the density of each disc. While Laserdisc's primary value add for consumers was higher video quality, DVDs added another layer of interactivity with full motion-capable menus, the ability to play frame by frame on every film, and added behind-the-scenes bonus content. Contrast DVD's interactivity with VHS's comparatively low quality and lack of bonus material, and consumers had a simple choice to upgrade. Initially, DVD players were extremely expensive, but with the release of Sony's DVD-toting PS2 and other manufacturers jumping in to make DVD players, the devices continued to drop in price, and now are essentially commoditized for around $20 per player, and $20 per film.
Consumer electronics companies had just made a killing off of DVD, so their next target was DVD's potential sucessor. With HDTVs starting to hit store shelves, Toshiba and Sony started development of two new formats that maintained the DVD form factor, but upped the storage capacity and video quality to high-definition levels. Ultimately, Toshiba's HD-DVD format lost the format war because most of the big movie studios put their weight behind Sony's Blu-ray format.
For consumers, Blu-ray's biggest selling point over DVD is image quality. Blu-ray movies are offered at 1080p, nearly four times the resolution of DVD. Blu-ray does have other unique features that trump DVDs, like BD-Live, wherein internet connected players can access online bonus material. However, the sum of the value added features either aren't notable enough to warrant further attention, or simply aren't being sold to consumers as important. Sony and other Blu-ray backers are simply touting Blu-ray as a high definition version of DVD.
Blu-ray's feature set related to DVD seems more like Laserdisc's feature set compared to VHS. Blu-ray's value adds aren't enough to wow the average consumer, and with a pricey $300 investment, most consumers in a cash-strapped economy might still favor the standard DVD player and movie selection rather than make the jump to Blu-ray. But, if Blu-ray doesn't catch on as the next high def format, that doesn't mean DVDs will stick around forever.
DVD's successor won't be a physical medium, but instead will be digital delivery of movies. We're already seeing inexpensive systems, like the Roku Netflix Player at $99, that will couple the higher quality look of HD with the value add of not needing to go to a store to purchase discs. There are already a few systems, Xbox 360 included, that are less expensive than the cheapest Blu-ray player, that can offer a full HD experience without any physical media.
Blu-ray elitists will claim movie streaming or downloads are lower quality than that of their Blu-ray counterparts, and they're right. Movie downloads tend to have additional compression that Blu-ray movies don't have, however going back to Laserdisc vs VHS, consumers have shown they care more about features and accessibility rather than video quality. The fact that DVD had better quality than VHS was a happy sidenote to the lack of rewinding of DVDs, the bonus content of DVDs, and the fact that DVDs don't degrade each time they're played back. Digital video delivery doesn't offer the same feature set as DVDs, but the differentiation might be all that matters to consumers. Even if video streams and downloads forgo the added "special feature" content of Blu-ray and DVD, digital delivery offers consumers the promise of not leaving the couch to find and watch a film, and ultimately that simple value add might beat Blu-ray.
Fortunately, some companies are hedging their bets in the high def movie war. LG, for example, recently released the BD300, which is a Netflix PlayNow enabled Blu-ray player. LG is betting, rightly so, that if Blu-ray wins over consumers' hearts and physical media continues to dominate, this sub $500 player will do a good job of playing back movies. However, if Blu-ray stagnates and digital delivery services like Netflix take over, LG will still have units which can plug into a home theater. LG's convergent idea is a noble approach, though the end product will likely be an expensive one ranging from $400 to $500.
We're expecting Blu-ray to be a home theater junkie format, while so-called "normal consumers" will simply see download services with inexpensive hardware, like the Roku Netflix Player, as a way to save some cash and still get HD movies. What do you think? Are you excited about either movie downloads or Blu-ray? Is there a feature of Blu-ray that'll make it a runaway success? Sound off in the comments.
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Comments (19)
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Dave
(12:52 PM on Mon Nov 10, 2008)
I think the external HD will be the next gen format. How much space will a Blu-Ray quality 2 hour movie take up in GBs?
a 1TB drive can be had for $220 or so and is smaller than a blu ray player.
Ryan Carter
(1:29 PM on Tue Nov 11, 2008)
External HD is a trend that may have some traction, however the technology that exists needs to be stylized and packaged in a sexy and easier way to be used in every day life. Once a company applies the same ethic that Apple has to their products, and makes hard drives "just work", we'll have it made. I agree that the size of a format is increasing too fast for a locked-down disc spec to keep up, and everyone is nearly tired of having to deal with physical media as well. The other trend to watch is media in the cloud and what it could hold if broadband was wider, more ubiquitous and available. Once fiber reaches critical mass, we may not have a need for discs, hard or otherwise at all.
Anonymous (2:46 AM on Tue Nov 18, 2008)
No one has hit the real issue on the death of Blu Ray... ticked off DVD collectors. Folks like myself that invested in the "digitial" format... but have been told that DVD is not "true HD" I own around 500 total discs... and I am ticked off that neither Blu Ray nor HD-DVD offered trade ins or discounts towards the new format.... that wouldve got me on board... but I never will be. Now I am not interested in regular DVD anymore... why buy outdated discs? And how much longer before another format gets released to trump blu ray.... downloadable with discounted format upgrades is the end of owning movies. RIP blu-ray!!!
Randall Bennett
(10:51 AM on Tue Nov 18, 2008)
Yeah, RIP physical media in general. We have a large DVD collection that'll likely stay that way, and never go Blu-ray.
Mike (12:01 AM on Wed Dec 17, 2008)
It sounds like you like to collect movies. The problem with going to downloadable content is that you will never actually own anything anymore. Sure, you can "purchase" it, but when you're sitting at your friends wanting to watch a new movie you just bought, and his address (or whatever form of content protection they enable) isn't accepted by whatever provider has sold you the movie, you are going to be pissed.
I want actual media I can hold in my hands. Who cares if it becomes obsolete in 10 years? Your old stuff can still be upconverted. Thats a lot better deal then when dvd came out and all that tape was suddenly worthless. How about vinyl? Or 8-track, or cassette? I highly doubt you were complaining about the companies giving you trade-ins. Just go with the flow, and actually think about the situation. If its all downloadable media then we as the consumer are being ripped off because of the simple fact that we are paying to own something that we will never actually hold.
Randall Bennett
(6:12 AM on Wed Dec 17, 2008)
I think it's going to be different though, I'm not one for buying downloadable content. Instead, I'd rather just rent the content from Netflix or the like. I'm not one for owning movies, but my wife is. I think she'll always like to have a physical copy, though I think that concept might go away soon.
Jjschepis (7:41 PM on Sat Dec 13, 2008)
Totally YES, I hope Blu-Ray fails, if it does. BRING BACK THE HD DVD.
wewa (5:24 PM on Tue Dec 16, 2008)
Not likely, but I feel your pain. I'm happier with my HD DVD player and my Sony BDP is sitting dusty in the bedroom.
Anonymous (5:25 PM on Tue Dec 16, 2008)
Not likely, but I feel your pain. I'm happier with my HD DVD player and my Sony BDP is sitting dusty in the bedroom.
Anonymous (1:21 AM on Tue Dec 30, 2008)
All the people that have regular DVDs hold your horses and you will soon be able to upconvert your current collections to BLU RAY and enjoy them all in 1080p. Dont be so hard on something that aint working out as fast as you would like it to. I like to own my media and like it was stated above if I wanna take a movie to a friends house I wanna throw it in my truck and be gone. I love watching BLU RAY as opposed to HD anytime. Bring on a higher RES. BRING IT ANYDAY, SCREW HD
Anonymous (3:41 AM on Thu Jan 8, 2009)
I agree with the concept of the article. Blu-ray doesn't offer that much as a medium. Its not the same big jump from VHS to DVD. And if we talk about quality and consumers just remember that when the first digital (consumer) cameras came to the market people stopped being that concerned about picture quality (35-mm was better and still is) but they cared of how easier it was to take a photo and look at it at once. The same with vinyl to cd's etc. When a medium doesn't offer you much more than its ancestor you wait for sth much better. I believe that soon sth new will hit on the market.
Anonymous (5:59 AM on Mon Jan 12, 2009)
I do love BD's although I think they are quite expensive. In time, that'll change, I'm sure. As well as I'm sure a new format will be released in the next 5 years. The problem now is that people do not notice much difference between BD's and DVD's quality. In fact, you can notice it mainly -should I say SOLELY- on new releases. As to films that already exist on DVD, it is much better to simply have them upscaled by a decent BD player. Netflix and the like are certainly great for renting movies, but buying and owning them will always be fascinating. I am from Rome, Italy and I am witnessing the same thing that's happening in the UK: all rental companies are closing down now that a new DVD costs just a few euros more than a rental fee. Why spend 5 euros to have a DVD for a couple of nights when you can buy one -and enjoy it forever- for 10-15? Not to mention the fall in prices there is after a few weeks a new DVD is released. In times of crisis, we've learned that you just have to wait to make a good deal. Unless BD's prices fall consistently, the format will never catch on the way it is. And let's keep in mind that most people under 25 are constantly downloading. See what's happening to music and CD's...
Anonymous (12:25 PM on Mon Jan 12, 2009)
what alot of people arnt realizing is that bluray players can play regular DVD's, so in a couple years when the bluray player drops in price enough, it will most likely take over DVD. So good news for the people that have a 500 dvd collection, not only will you not have to rebuy the movies, they will be upscaled through the player.
Xerolooper (11:08 AM on Tue Feb 24, 2009)
Convenience trumps all, that is the rule in this game. The on demand services will most likely dominate because of this. However, the replacement for physical media like DVD is SDHC or some variation of that. I already see it coming. Watch for them to start looking like clear crystal with read only content. You'll already find mp3 content on the smaller SD card being sold at the music stores.
Bernard Z (3:23 AM on Mon Mar 30, 2009)
This article brings me into the world of computer industry. This actually reminds me of Harley Davidson an American icon. Easily one of the most famous motorcycle brands, Harley Davidson is among the first names that come to mind when people think of motorcycles. However, the brand is in trouble. As the recession draws on, fewer people are willing to lay down $20,000 or more on a vehicle that isn't a daily driver. The company has also been hurting because of the credit crisis, but after losing large sums on previous loans, the financial wing is still offering loans with much stricter requirements. Tom Bergman, Harley CFO defends the lending, citing that the company is trying to survive. They may need a payday loan in the meantime. However, as the economy shows signs of rebound, it isn't likely we will see an end to Harley Davidson.
Anonymous (2:14 AM on Sun Apr 12, 2009)
Blu Ray will not die, at least not straight away, however, its longevity will be much shorter than DVD as a format. The way I see it, I think on-line movie rentals is the future. Most people watch movies once or twice even though many of them are collectors of DVDs today. People are starting to realize that you need to watch a movie more than 3 times before it makes sense to buy. A lot of people have bought most of the library titles they want on DVD already so Blu Ray's sales won't get anywhere near the same level of sales DVDs enjoyed. Blu Ray will be around for videophiles and for perhaps for movies that you truly love - but those types of movies are those that have special effects etc to make the full use of that quality. Eventually movies should be sold on-line for what they are truly worth - $5....thats the maximum movie studios make from every DVD sold after paying all the middle men and factoring in the cost of production and packaging. Rentals should be a few dollars at most for HD. I think the movie studios will enjoy better profitability and increased sales if they were to do this - a win win for all. However, their paranoia on piracy rains supreme. Foolish to say the least.
Anonymous (1:58 AM on Fri May 15, 2009)
Blu Ray is a totally awful format for the independent film producer, with ridiculous licensing fees, and hoops to jump through (by Sony), the independent film producers are keeping away and staying with DVD. The whole DRM issue is stupid, and ARCHAIC. Downloads will be the weapon of choice for most consumers, the only ones who will rave on about blu ray are those home theater nuts who have to justify their expenses of a player all that HI FI gear and TV display to appreciate BLU Ray. It will fade away in years to come, just like 8 track, and Beta max, and Quadraphonic stereo. Look at how good movies look from xbox live or apple, and how easy it is to get the latest movie or tv show. People dont care about 1080P nor can they even tell the difference between 720P and 1080P, they care about the content. Blu Ray doesn't justify the investment of many many hundreds or thousands of dollars to appreciate the format, that doesn't offer much over what DVD does for people right now.
Its obviously not doing much for sony, who just posted a BILLION dollar loss. The first time in 14 years... and they expect next year to be worse, things dont look good for blu ray.
Anonymous (12:14 AM on Thu Dec 31, 2009)
I would love to see blu-ray die... my bf just started "collecting" them and it drives me up the wall. Just another thing to spend our hard earned money on. There is not a big difference in anything but the price. I stick to gold old dvds.
Dan Scott (12:04 PM on Mon Feb 1, 2010)
I'm not in any business and I don't know anything about the industry, but, logically I can say this. DVD's are already expensive. If blu-ray simply made their products, disk and player, ACTUALLY affordable for consumers, they would TAKE OVER the entire industry. Every home would have and use blu-ray.
It's simple. It's true. I don't have/use it, and I don't know anyone who does. It can't be that expensive to manufacture, they're just being nazis. If they made it affordable, they wouldn't be failing right now.